Urban space, sprawl, and intergenerational mobility

This study examines the mechanisms of spatial variation in intergenerational mobility (IM) in United States (US) counties. We explicitly emphasized the effects of urban space and four aspects of urban sprawl—density, mix of uses, centering, and accessibility—and their interaction with socioeconomic factors. We found that urban sprawl variables did not all affect IM in the same direction, and the magnitude of the effect of one urban sprawl variable depended on other variables. The effects of centering varied: while employment centering negatively affected IM, population centering enhanced IM. Typical livable city indicators of walkability, mixed-use development, and a jobs-housing balance improved IM. Their effects on IM were magnified if either of the other two factors increased. However, the impact of walkability on IM decreased if employment centering increased and vice versa. Urban sprawl variables also indirectly influenced IM through inequality, segregation, social capital, and unemployment. We also found that the Black population share had the largest indirect and total effects on IM, which were spatially stationary across the US, and were mediated by racial segregation, social capital, unemployment, education, and single parenthood. This study has shown that enhancing IM requires more than reducing segregation and increasing density.