What is the actual prevalence of medical bankruptcies?

Purpose - Medical bankruptcies occur when an individual experiences an acute or chronic health event, and the costs of care exceed the individual's ability to pay. In such cases, the individual typically files for bankruptcy. There is an extensive literature that estimates the prevalence of medical bankruptcy, but studies either select a population whose medical care is extremely expensive or chooses ad hoc thresholds for medical bankruptcy categorizations. In both cases, the prevalence of medical bankruptcy is biased. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the actual prevalence of medical bankruptcies in a manner that avoids these limitations. Design/methodology/approach - Data are randomly drawn from a single US Bankruptcy Court district. Following the literature, an ad hoc threshold of medical debts which places the bankruptcy filer at risk for a medical bankruptcy is postulated. Misclassification analyses are used to estimate the likelihood of a medical bankruptcy filing while adjusting for the use of ad hoc thresholds. Findings - The naive prevalence of medical bankruptcy is 23.1 percent, but exceeds 50 percent when accounting for misclassification. Many individuals are ostensibly medically bankrupt. They are already seriously indebted, and any outside financial shock, including but not limited to medical bills, can push these debtors into insolvency. Originality/value - Bankruptcy is an important social safety net. An improved understanding of the types and magnitudes of medical debts which precipitate a bankruptcy filing can lead to policies that improve outcomes for bankruptcy filers and reduce the social costs of bankruptcy.