DOWNWARD CONDITIONAL MONOTONICITY GIVES SURVIVAL AND EXTINCTION FOR CONTACT PROCESSES IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS

The concept of downward conditional monotonicity for the Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP) is introduced and used to derive the optimal stochastic domination of a standard Poisson point process. The maximum arrival rate for the Poisson process which allows this domination to exist is shown to be related to an eigenvalue extracted from the generator matrix of the quasi-birth–death (QBD) formulation of the MMPP. This allows derivation of survival and extinction regimes for a large family of contact processes whose infection and recovery rates vary over time according to an underlying random environment with a finite number of states. Direct comparison with standard contact processes which dominate from above and below accomplishes this.